Predictions.

That's T-bone. Now, this may sound like I've lost my mind, but I think he knows that I go back to school next week. I know what you're thinking, "Did you tell him?" 

No, I did not. I'd been waiting for the right moment to break the news, but as I said, I think he knows. T-bone has been trying to make the most of our last few days of summer, spending more time inside, sitting on my lap with his eyes lidded like the Buddha, spending more time sitting on my lap before he invariably becomes agitated and claws the hell out of my arm (distinctly not Buddha-like). He has also more frequently insisted that we sit together on the backyard grass for long conversations before he invariably becomes agitated and, well, you know.

Whether T-bone is as intelligent (or sociopathic) as I suspect or I've simply spent too much time with my cat this summer matters little. School starts next week and I'm getting excited. In the absurdity of my excitement, I thought I'd make some bold (and some not so bold) predictions...

#1) Scores on this year's report card for nearly all schools will be far poorer than prior years because of a second year of new assessments. The ODE will admit as much, and discuss the time and effort that are being put forth to improve student achievement (read scores), as well as the importance of accountability. The ODE will release new information on the assessments which will be impossible to find on their website.

#2) Furthermore, the ODE will persist with the propaganda that standardized tests are necessary to assure that our children are college and career ready (without any mention of the limitations in the use of standardized tests for this purpose), and schools unable to meet arbitrarily set achievement levels should be taken over by the state and/or opened to private corporate management firms, what they will call public charter schools.

#3) Predictably, those schools and districts with the lowest scores will be those who serve our society's most vulnerable populations as the assessments prove once again that they are best at measuring economic standing.

#4) In response to implicit and explicit threats from the ODE, school districts will purchase more hardware, software, and educational materials, while students get more "screen time" in school in the interest of improved scores. Everyone will swear that this is NOT "test prep," but rather a means to assure that your child is able to compete in a global economy. We all know it's test prep.

#5) New State Superintendent of Schools Paolo DeMaria will continue to insist that he welcomes the feedback of all stakeholders in education, from parents to principals, from teachers to students. As emails and the responses to surveys pile up, no results from the feedback will be made public, nor is any response evident from the Superintendent himself aside from his ongoing support of charter schools.

#6) ECOT will continue to ignore its detractors who point to its 30 something percent graduation rate by arguing that it has the largest graduating class. Their ability to ignore facts, fail to grasp simple statistics, and completely miss the point for the sake of profit will make even those who accept the largest campaign donations from William Lager begin to flinch a bit. But not Dave Yost, our brilliant state auditor who already rewarded ECOT's excellent record-keeping. He'll continue to deflect the blame as he keeps one eye on the governor's office.

#7) Based upon the alarming percentage of high school students, likely 30 - 50% in some districts, who are not on pace to gain their 18 points to graduate, a larger collective outcry of students, parents, teachers, and other stakeholders will be heard demanding a remedy to this untenable situation. The overarching goal will become completely disconnecting high school graduation from standardized test scores. In response, the ODE will once again explain the completely inadequate 3 paths to graduation.

#8) Meanwhile, in districts around the state, teachers like myself will do our best to set all of the above bullshit aside, in order to have some fun, keep it weird, and teach some kids. And when they respond well and find success we'll champion their accomplishments. And when they have some difficulty, or everything seems overwhelming, we'll try to find some pragmatic solutions. After all, we didn't get into this business for profit or power, or in the interest of furthering a political agenda.

Hey, T-bone, I'm going back to school next week.